上記記事の続き。
戸建ての価格推移を見ると、全国平均はそうでもないが東京都は大きく上昇している。品川区を例に、より正確な値上がり幅を算出する。
品川区戸建ては1.5倍！！
これまでの分析を踏まえ、2024年の「品川区」の不動産価格指数(2010年の何倍か)を算出してみる。
東京都の不動産価格指数は公表されてるが、23区ごとは無いので、類似指標である「㎡単価」を用いて推測する。
※考え方
・A区の㎡単価(直近14年の平均値)は東京都平均値より10%高い
・A区の不動産価格指数も同様に東京都平均値より10%高いと思われる
→東京都の不動産価格指数(公表値)の1.1倍をA区の不動産価格指数とする
例えば品川区戸建ての場合、品川区と東京都の差(平均値)は+13.5%だ。
2024年の「東京都」の不動産価格指数は132.6なので、2024年の「品川区」の不動産価格指数は132.6*1.135=150.5(1.5倍)くらいと推測できる。
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
品川区マンションの場合、品川区と東京都の差(平均値)は+2.7%だ。
2024年の「東京都」の不動産価格指数は204.0なので、204.0*1.027=210.0(2.1倍)くらいと推測できる。
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
※マンションについては、データに1億円以上の物件が含まれており(全体の約10%)、上昇度合いに差がある。それらを除外すると価格指数は2.1倍より少し下がると思われる。
https://www.nli-research.co.jp/report/detail/id=78271?pno=3&site=nli
駅近戸建てはさらに上昇
立地は不動産価値を決定する重要な要素だが、「駅近」も観点に入れてみる。
統計データが徒歩分数別は首都圏という括りしかなかったので前提条件が少し異なるが、徒歩10分以内の戸建ては、全体と比較して+4.1%(平均値)だ。
一方、マンションは同様に比較しても+1.2%。
この傾向は首都圏も東京都も恐らく同様だと思うので、品川区かつ徒歩10分以内の戸建ては、東京都平均値より13.5%(品川区)+4.1%(徒歩10分)=17.6%価格が高いと推測できる。
※厳密には徒歩10分+4.1%が単純に加算的に作用するか不明なので目安
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
戸建ての方が差が大きいのは、徒歩10分以内の戸建ては全体の約3割に過ぎないが、マンションは7割もあるためだと思われる。戸建ては徒歩20~30分とかザラなので・・
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
結論
以上を踏まえると、結論は以下となる。
・戸建て
2024年不動産価格指数(2010年=100)は全国平均で115.0。東京に限定すると132.6。
推測を含むが、品川区だと+13.5%、徒歩10分以内で+4.1%。
→品川区・徒歩10分以内の戸建ては156.0程度(2010年価格の1.6倍‼️)
・マンション
2024年不動産価格指数(2010年=100)は全国平均で202.2。東京に限定すると204.0。
推測を含むが、品川区だと+2.7%、徒歩10分以内で+1.2%。(億ション除くと数%減かも)
→品川区・徒歩10分以内のマンションは211.9程度(2010年価格の2.1倍)
最初のグラフで表現すると、以下イメージだ。
・マンション価格
全国平均(グレー) → 品川区(緑) ※あまり変わらない
・戸建て価格
全国平均(グレー) → 品川区(青) ※かなり上昇
全国平均で見ると2024年時点で「マンション2倍・戸建て1.2倍」と大差をつけられているが、都内・駅近に限定すると「マンション2.1倍・戸建て1.6倍」と差がぐっと縮まった。条件次第で全体平均からこんなに変わるということだ。
また、「築年数に伴う価格率」を考慮すると、さらに戸建てとマンションの差は縮まるのだが、それは次の記事で説明する。
品川区以外はどうなの？
品川区を例に書いたが、他の区のデータは以下表の通りだ。
東京都の2024年不動産価格指数は戸建て132.6・マンション204.0なので、それに一番右の列の平均値(東京都と各区の価格差)を掛ければ、各区の2024年不動産価格指数の目安が出せる。
同じ23区でもかなり差があるので、是非参考にしていただければと思う。
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
おおむね公示地価上昇率のマップと一致する。都心ほどリセールが良いが物件価格も高くなるのでバランスが難しいところ。
https://ie-and-life.com/category/land-prices/tokyo/
参考に㎡単価推移も載せておく。マンションの方が大体3~4割高い・・戸建ては延床面積に廊下や階段が含まれるので、それを除いた「有効面積」で考えると価格差は少し縮まりそう。
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
http://www.reins.or.jp/library/nmw2023.html
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